A Real Recovery Will Not Happen Until Mortgage Backed Securities Are Reformed

Loss severities for mortgage bonds continue to sluggishly improve even as home prices make gains, Fitch Ratings reported this week.
Home prices grew roughly 14% nationally, and even as much as 30% locally in states such as California.
However, loss severities have only improved 5% since the fourth quarter of 2011. While investors in residential mortgage-backed securities may have been hoping to benefit from rising prices during the liquidation process, liquidation timelines are growing, offsetting the potential for larger gains.
"Longer timelines translate to higher servicer advancing and property maintenance costs, which cut into the higher liquidation proceeds afforded by the home price environment," said Fitch director Sean Nelson.
He added, "On average, distressed loans that liquidated in third quarter-2013 hadn’t made a payment in 32 months. This is nearly twice as long as the average liquidation timeline in 2008."
The increasing focus by servicers on loan modifications and other alternatives to foreclosure continues to reduce the number of liquidations. Nonetheless, it has also contributed to higher severities on loans considered for — but not ultimately received — a foreclosure alternative as a result of additional time required.
Consequently, a rapid improvement in loss severities isn’t expected in the short term as timelines continue to increase.
The average liquidation timelines reached 32 months in the third-quarter, which is more than twice as long as average timelines during the housing heyday.
However, lower severities for loans that are currently performing may default in the future.
Interestingly enough, timelines for loan remaining in foreclosure or real estate-owned properties reached an all-time high in the third quarter, increasing at a faster rate in 2013 than in any prior year.
For instance, 32% of seriously delinquent loans have not made a payment for more than four years, up from 7% at the start of 2012, Fitch noted.
"As the inventory of distressed properties declines to a more manageable level, timelines are expected to improve," Nelson said.
He continued, "Lower loan-to-value ratios and shorter liquidation timelines should lead to meaningfully lower severities for loans that liquidate two to three years from now."

Home Appreciation to Slow in 2014: Zillow

Housing economists and real estate investment and market strategists are forecasting U.S. home value appreciation to slow down not only in 2014, but the next five years too, according to a Zillow survey.

Home prices are expected to end 2013 up nearly 7% year-over-year before slowing down considerably through 2018. The 108 survey respondents are predicting appreciation rates to be about 4% in 2014, and eventually fall to 3.4% in five years.   
National home values could exceed their May 2007 peak by the first quarter of 2018, the survey says based on current expectations for home price appreciation, as well as surpass the $200,000 threshold by the end of that same year.
“The housing market has seen a period of unsustainable, breakneck appreciation, and some cooling off is both welcome and expected,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow. “Rising mortgage rates, diminished investor demand and slowly rising inventory will all contribute to the slowdown of appreciation.”
Most panelists (58%) also said they would like to see the federal government maintain a considerable role in the mortgage market. Only 8% of those surveyed said the government should have a “non-existent” role in the conforming market.
The federal government accounted for 50% of all new mortgage originations at the beginning of the 21st century, but now backs approximately 90%, says Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics LLC, an independent research and consulting firm that conducted the home expectations survey on behalf of Zillow.
Survey respondents said they would like to see the government support 35% of mortgage loans going forward, which is roughly the level that was seen in 2006.
“Policy discussions centered on reforming the nation’s housing finance system have only just begun,” Humphries said. “How much mortgages will end up costing average consumers, and the continued availability of traditional mortgage products like the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, are among the critical issues currently at stake for consumers in these debates.”

A preliminary count of FHA single-family originations in September shows a 30% drop in endorsements from the prior month

Federal Housing Administration lenders originated 68,500 single-family loans in September, according to the Obama administration’s Housing Scorecard that was released Friday. Purchase mortgage transactions comprised 72% of September FHA loan production.
Friday’s report shows purchase mortgage transactions comprised 49,500 of originations and 38,500 involved first-time homebuyers.
FHA lenders originated 97,700 loans, according to the FHA Production Report released last month. August loan production was down just 4% from July. Purchase loan endorsements totaled 63,800 in August.

Fannie and Freddie’s Strong Earnings Mask Struggling Housing Market

Over the past year, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been giant refinancing machines generating huge profits that have been flowing into the U.S. Treasury.

These profits have allowed Freddie to finally reach a point where it can pay back all the assistance it has received from the federal government since it was placed in conservatorship in September 2008. Fannie is only one quarter away from reaching the same milestone.
But this emphasis on refinancing has left the housing market in a “rut,” according to Jim Carr, a former Fannie executive and currently a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress.
It is only “marginally performing” in terms of serving homebuyers, Carr told NMN. He blames this on high fees and tight credit standards.
“It is time to change leadership at the Federal Housing Finance Agency and appoint a person who can focus on homeownership and provide credit to first-time homeowners,” he said. Edward DeMarco is the acting director of the FHFA.
Mortgage Bankers Association president and chief executive David Stevens also is concerned about the lack of emphasis on the purchase market and the fact that DeMarco is still talking about raising loan fees and lowering loan limits.
“The direction of this GSE market is not supportive of creating a robust housing market recovery,” Stevens said in an interview.
The strong earnings reports released by Fannie and Freddie on Thursday show the conservatorship phase for the GSEs is over, Carr said. “It is no longer needed to protect taxpayers,” he said. Until Congress passes GSE legislation, the FHFA could take administrative actions to improve access to credit.
The MBA chief executive noted that Fannie and Freddie's turnaround is really based on a no-doc refinance program called HARP, the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policies and government guarantees.
Meanwhile, the GSEs are producing massive profits for the Treasury Department while the housing market is struggling. “The real work of addressing the purchase market recovery has been lost in all of this,” Stevens says.

Scramble To Exit Housing Market Peaks With "American Homes 4 Rent" IPO Pricing At 44% Discount

Two months ago we first observed the scramble by various hedge funds, in this case Blue Mountain, to take advantage of the peak sentiment in housing, and specifically rental housing (which just hit an all time high as reported previously) by rushing to capitalize on recent investments and dump exposure to the witless public.

Specifically, we envisioned the then just announced IPO of the aptly named American Homes 4 Rent (yes, with a "4" not "for"), also known as AMH, which however came at precisely the wrong time for the market: just as mortgage rates were soaring and Colony American Homes postponed its own parallel IPO. Two months later, with the market about to pass 1700 and fears about the housing market put back in the shelf despite a glaringly obvious collapse in mortgage demand, these IPOs are back and with a vengeance, although now reflecting a far more subdued, tapered if you will, view about the house leasing sector. Not surprisingly, AMH priced overnight, selling 44.1 million shares at a price at the bottom of the $16-18 range to raise a total of $706 million: a 44% discount to the $1.25 billion suggested in the prospectus filed back in June.

So much for the housing bubble.

This is what we wrote in June:

After the close today, another rental REIT, the hilariously named American Homes 4 Rent also scrambled to file its own IPO prospectus, realizing the game is almost up.  And while we will let readers delve into the financials of the massively unprofitable rental REIT on their own (S-11 link here), the firm which has already invested $2.5 billion to purchase some 14,210 properties across the US, which in an ideal world would generate an average of $15,755 in cash rent per property (and a solid 9% cap rate if only on paper) suddenly also appears very worried about the rate compression between its assets and liabilities and can't seem to wait to cash out.

But what is most curious about the AH4R IPO is that it was only in November of last year that none other than Blue Mountain - the hedge fund located on the fifth floor of the JPM HQ best known for first raping then rescuing the JPM London Whale: one wonders just how much Andrew Feldstein might have overheard at the 48th Street Starbucks but we digress) invested over $70 million in the rental company. Six months later it is perfectly happy to be classified as a "selling shareholder."

Translation: the hedge funds that bought in barely six months ago into what everyone knew would be the easiest and most levered wave to ride the accelerated housing bubble, are now rushing to get out before the emperor's lack of clothes is obvious for all to see. If they can that is: for those who are forced to pull their IPOs, the sad housing reality summarized so aptly by Carrington is about to unfold.

Two months later the game is up, and those same hedge funds, while profitable, are willing to eat a 44% drop in their initially hoped for returns in just a two month period. From Bloomberg:

American Homes 4 Rent, based in Agoura Hills, California, sold 44.1 million shares for $16 each, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, after offering them for $16 to $18. The shares will start trading today, listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol AMH.

The company, with almost 18,000 properties, is the second-largest in the U.S. homes-for-rent market, after Blackstone (BX) Group LP, and is going public at a time when investors are cooling on the fledgling industry. American Homes 4 Rent raised almost 44 percent less than the $1.25 billion amount estimated in an initial propectus by the company in June.

While American Homes 4 Rent has the benefit of strong leadership under Hughes and a diverse portfolio, it’s uncertain whether single-family owners can make money over the long term on par with other types of landlords, Dave Bragg, an analyst at Green Street Advisors Inc., said this week before the IPO. The two other REITs that have gone public -- Silver Bay (SBY) Realty Trust Corp. and American Residential Properties Inc.  -- are trading below their offering price.

Shares of other public single-family rental REITs have fallen as the companies have failed to show a profit, in part because they are acquiring houses faster than they can fill them with tenants. Silver Bay, based in Minnetonka, Minnesota, began trading in December at $18.50 a share and closed yesterday at $16.09. American Residential Properties of Scottsdale, Arizona, went public in May at $21 and has fallen to $17.54.

This Is Further Proof That The Banks Are Holding Back Inventory- Thus The Price Rise Is Artificial

 

Dutch-owned ING is continuing to dissolve non-insurance related assets as part of its bailout agreement with the government of the Netherlands. The latest announcement deals with the offloading of Alt-A mortgages in the United States. According to an article in the New York Times, the portfolio of mortgage securities, originally valued at 24 billion euros, or about $33 billion, will be sold at an expected $500 million profit for the Dutch government.
Of course, market participants offer some more perspective. The current value of the portfolio is now about 6.4 billion euros or approximately $8.8 billion. Nonetheless, the paper will be welcome to the market.
"We think the unwinding of the portfolio will be welcomed by the non-agency market as it will help relieve the lack of supply," said Greg Reiter, Head of RMBS Research at Wells Fargo Securities.
Adjustable rate mortgages slip in popularity in an environment of rising interest rates. But even so, the Motley Fool says, it can be a great mortgage product.
"The adjustable-rate mortgage, or ARM, may be the best option -- depending on your circumstances," writes Patrick Morris.
"The ARM is a curious one, as it often carries the lowest rate, yet it represented only 4.4% and 6.5% of all mortgages originated in 2009 and 2010 (the most recent years for which the data is available)," he adds.
Over to housing stories, Crain's New York Business ran an article harping on the lack of political action on rising housing costs in the big apple. but offered hope that a new regime may address it head on.
In that market, the less people make, the more they usually have to pay from their incomes for lodging. The issue may make or break the next candidate for mayor, the article points out.
"To keep this housing in good condition and create incentives for owners to keep it affordable for the long term, the next mayor should continue to use his housing agencies to offer low-cost loans and tax incentives to owners for capital repairs and energy-efficiency upgrades that will tamp down operating expenses and rent increases," the article states.
California seems to be doing well on the opposite end of the scale. Several private, high-end multifamily complexes aren't even finished with construction in San Francisco, yet they're already approaching half occupancy. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal talks about the national trend of building with only renters in mind.
For private apartment builders, it's the good times. San Fran is being flooded with young techies with great jobs. Three bedrooms can go into the $5,000 a month range, according to the San Francisco Gate. They may be flush with cash, but that won't equal more room to spread one's wings.
"They and many others moving into Upper Market may be downsizing quite a bit. Units measure as small as 450 square feet - 'teeny-weeny floor plans,' as one real estate blog described them," the article states.
Banks will have to do more to show greater survivability in harsh economic times according to an article in Bloomberg.
The stress test for 2014 will have to show reduced counterparty risk and cushion from large losses in business loans.
"The Fed is using the tests -- based on hypothetical adverse conditions and not forecasts -- to encourage the 30 biggest banks to build capital cushions against economic turmoil," the article states. "Twelve banks will be subject to the capital review for the first time."
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. closed no banks going into the weekend.

DeMarco's Job Is Safe- For Now!!!

A procedural vote designed to get Rep. Mel Watt, D-N.C., thrust quickly into the head job at the Federal Housing Finance Agency failed on the Senate floor this morning.
The failed cloture vote initiated by Democratic leaders in the Senate suggests that while Watt’s nomination is not dead, it has been significantly derailed.
If Democrats had obtained the 60-vote threshold in the procedural vote this morning, Watt most likely would have obtained full Senate confirmation within a week, Compass Point Research & Trading said. Achieving that threshold would have meant the Congressman could have obtained the FHFA spot with a simple 51 votes – a simple barrier with Democrats and like-minded Indepedents already set to give him 55 votes, analysts with Compass Point explained.

However, that was not the case. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-N.V., pushed for cloture to prevent a filibuster and procedural delays. With that vote failing this morning, Watt’s fight for the FHFA leadership post is now much more difficult. Reid's procedural vote failed by four votes, with a final 56-to-42 vote count.
"We do not believe that Senate Majority Leader Reid’s (D-NC) most recent nomination push will end if Rep. Watt’s nomination does not clear the 60-vote threshold today, but it will surely be a body blow to the effort," Compass Point said. "One way or the other, following today’s vote attention is going to quickly turn to Janet Yellen’s nomination to head the Federal Reserve as the Senate Banking Committee is expected to hold its hearing on the nomination as early as November 14."
As for what happens to the Watt vote, it’s likely to go idle for a while since it may be difficult for the administration to make a big public push for Watt ahead of his Feb. 28 filing deadline for his congressional reelection campaign, Compass Point said.
Watt went into the hearing with opposition against him.
While Watt had the backing of the Mortgage Bankers Association, conservative groups like Club for Growth released statements advising Senators to vote against cloture on the Watt nomination.
 "Congressman Mel Watt is not at issue – the policies he will pursue as head of FHFA are," said Club for Growth President Chris Chocola. "Mel Watt will almost certainly pursue a write-down of mortgage debt, which is a massive taxpayer-subsidized bailout that would create a massive moral hazard."
"Make no mistake – a vote for cloture on Mel Watt is simply a vote for a massive taxpayer-funded bailout, and the Club for Growth will treat it as such on our Congressional scorecard," added Chocola.
If Watt had obtained 60 votes this morning, his nomination would have been smooth sailing, and it’s likely he would have had the post as early as next week.
If cloture had been secured, he could have easily obtained the seat with 51 votes.
Today’s vote throws off that momentum.
Analysts with Barclays Securitized Products Research see a few possibilities from this point forward. Sen. Reid can either bring the confirmation up for another vote if Republican support surfaces, or the White House can nominate someone else such as Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, whose name has been flown around for some time now.
Other options include a White House recess appointment to make Watt director at the end of the Congressional session in December, or a decision from the administration to elevate one of Ed DeMarco’s current deputies to the position, Barclays noted.